“A Tricky Balance”: preparing communities for an alpine rupture without scaring them

Scientists predict a 75% chance the fault line will rupture within the next 50 years. There is a four out of five chance the event will be a magnitude 8 event. 

Dr Thomas Robinson, who has been involved in the roadshow since 2021, is set to speak at the Christchurch talks. He says while the content is confronting, he'd frame it differently. 

“This isn't something that we should be scared of. The fact that we know all this information is a good thing. It means we can start to do something about it now," he says.

"If we didn't know and it came, this would be a real surprise...we wouldn't know how to respond.

"The connections we make now will be invaluable after this event and will make our lives much easier."

The talks are part of a bigger South Island roadshow heading across the majority of the South Island; from Picton to Queenstown. There will be three in Christchurch. 

The Alpine Fault runs 600km down the South Island. GNS says it will trigger one of the most significant quakes since European settlement. The severity of different areas has been predicted, with Christchurch in the ‘slightly damaging’ yellow zone. 

Robinson says while Christchurch won’t be as affected, it's essential we educate ourselves about it, as it will affect everyone.  

"Preparedness is preparedness. If you're prepared for an Alpine Fault event, you're prepared for...any kind of emergency.

"Those of us who are going to be less impacted by [this event]; the more prepared we are, the less support we'll need after...and all those limited resources that we have can be pushed into the areas where that support is really urgently needed."

Deputy Mayor Pauline Cotter says the council are trying to stay as up-to-date as possible with their community preparedness planning. 

“Having been through a disaster, we know what the critical things are. Number one is communication.”

She acknowledges it’s a “tricky balance” between education without scaring people with the facts. 

“The important thing now is to raise awareness.”

However, Cotter says Christchurch communities have become complacent with their emergency preparedness, compared to how they were in 2010 and 2011. 

"We've got a little relaxed about it.

"Everyone had a get-up and go kit…at the front door in case we had to run." 

She encourages people to attend these sessions to know exactly what they need and to understand the science.

Robinson says the talks will be informative.

“We'll give background to the science, talk about all the new information we've got.

"Then there will be key information on what you can do to prepare...then there will be a questions and answers session.”

"I'd really encourage people to come along and participate if they've got any questions."

Christchurch West will have their talk at Te Hāpua Mohoao Hall first, followed by Christchurch City at the Multicultural Recreation and Community Centre, and Christchurch East at the New Brighton Surf Club. All are free admission.

The full dates and times are available on the AF8 website - www.af8.org.nz